BMC Medicine

Introduction: Intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) has become less effective at preventing malaria due to rising parasite resistance. IPTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) alone or in combination with SP (DP+SP) dramatically lowers the risk of malaria in pregnancy compared to SP but is associated with lower birthweight and early life wasting. We estimated the effect of IPTp-DP, DP+SP, and SP on infant growth outcomes and assessed possible treatment mechanisms through a causal mediation analysis. Methods: We used infant follow-up data (N=761) from a trial (NCT04336189) that randomized pregnant women to receive monthly IPTp-DP, SP, or DP+SP. We compared weight-for-length (WLZ) and length-for-age (LAZ) z-scores between treatment arms. We assessed possible mediation through pregnancy, birth, and infancy factors using interventional indirect effect models. Results: Compared to IPTp-SP, IPTp-DP+SP decreased mean WLZ by 0.18 [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.03, 0.39] between 1-3 months and 0.28 (95% CI 0.07, 0.49) between 4-6 months, with the largest differences among primigravidae. Lower risk of active placental malaria in IPTp-DP+SP helped reduce differences in mean WLZ vs IPTp-SP (+0.06, 95% CI 0.02, 0.10). The IPTp-DP+SP arm had up to 0.28 lower mean LAZ between 7-13 months compared to IPTp-DP, particularly among children who were wasted between 0-6 months; low birthweight had a persistent, mediating effect on linear growth. Conclusion: Adverse birth outcomes contributed to early growth faltering among children born to mothers receiving IPTp-DP+SP vs IPTp-SP, but the prevention of placental malaria partially counteracted the negative effects of IPTp-DP+SP on ponderal growth.

BackgroundPractical alcohol risk-reduction strategies are widely recommended in public-facing alcohol guidance, but randomized evidence from socially interactive drinking episodes remains limited. We conducted a pilot cluster randomized trial to evaluate the feasibility and preliminary effects of a package intervention comprising practical drinking-strategy information, participant self-selection of same-day strategies, and a brief commitment declaration in a social drinking laboratory. MethodsThis single-center, parallel-group pilot trial was conducted in Japan. Pre-existing social groups participated. One or two groups scheduled in the same session slot were combined into a time-slot allocation unit, which was randomized 1:1 either to the package intervention or to alcohol-related knowledge only. The primary outcome was total pure alcohol intake during the first 120 min. Session satisfaction on a Visual Analog Scale (VAS) was a prespecified secondary participant-experience outcome. ResultsOf 83 interested individuals, 63 were randomized and 59 participants in 17 social groups and 12 allocation units were included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis. The mean paired intervention-control difference for 120-min alcohol intake was-8.84 g (95% confidence interval [CI]-27.92 to 10.23; exact sign-flip p = 0.281). The corresponding exploratory 0-30 min difference was-4.90 g (95% CI-10.48 to 0.68; exact sign-flip p = 0.094). In a genotype-adjusted participant-level sensitivity analysis, the intervention coefficient for 120-min intake was-16.0 g (95% CI-30.9 to-1.1; p = 0.036). Session satisfaction was high in both arms with no clear between-arm difference. Next-day follow-up was 100%, and no adverse-event-related discontinuations occurred. ConclusionsThe intervention was feasible to deliver in a socially interactive drinking setting, and session satisfaction was high in both arms. Primary allocation-unit estimates favored lower alcohol intake but were imprecise. Larger trials are needed to estimate effects more precisely, while considering the potential influence of genotype imbalance on effect estimation in East Asian samples. Trial registrationUniversity Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN-CTR) UMIN000060685. Registered 17 February 2026.

BackgroundIn England, the burden of respiratory infections varies by ethnicity, contributing to health inequalities, but the role of additional demographic factors remains underexplored. We quantified how differences in social mixing and demographic characteristics between ethnic groups cause inequalities in transmission dynamics. MethodsWe analysed the association between the ethnicity and the number of contacts of 12,484 participants in the 2024-2025 Reconnect social contact survey, using a negative binomial regression model. We simulated respiratory pathogen epidemics using a compartmental model stratified by age, ethnicity, and contact levels, at a national level and in major cities in England. FindingsAfter adjusting for demographic variables, participants of Black and Mixed ethnicities had more contacts than those of White ethnicity (rate ratios (RR): 1.18 [95% Credible Interval (CI): 1.11-1.26], and 1.31 [95% CI: 1.14-1.52]). Participants of Asian ethnicity had fewer contacts (RR: 0.85 [95% CI: 0.79-0.91]). In national-level simulations, individuals of White ethnicity had the lowest attack rates due to demographic differences and mixing patterns. Local demographic structures changed simulated dynamics: attack rates in individuals of Black and Mixed ethnicities were approximately double those of White ethnicity in Birmingham, but less than 60% higher in Liverpool. InterpretationDemographic characteristics and mixing patterns create inequalities in transmission dynamics between ethnicities, while local demographic characteristics and pathogen infectiousness change the expected relative burden. To ensure mitigation strategies are effective and equitable, their evaluation must explicitly account for inequalities arising from local context. FundingMedical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Wellcome Trust Research in context Evidence before this studyWe searched PubMed for population-based studies quantifying differences in respiratory infections between ethnic groups, up to 1 April 2026, with no language restrictions. Keywords included: (respiratory pathogens OR influenza OR COVID-19) AND (ethnic* OR race) AND (inequ*) AND (compartmental model OR incidence rate ratio OR hazard ratio). We excluded studies that focused on non-respiratory pathogens (e.g. looking at consequences of COVID-19 on incidence of other pathogens). A population-based cohort study showed that influenza infection risk was higher in South Asian, Black, and Mixed ethnic groups compared to White ethnicity in England. Another population-based cohort study highlighted that during the first wave of COVID-19 in England, the South Asian, Black, and Mixed ethnic groups were more likely to test positive and to be hospitalised than the White ethnic group. Census data in England showed that the distributions of age, household size, household income and employment status differed between ethnic groups, and the recent Reconnect social contact surveys highlighted the impact of each demographic factor on the participants number of contacts. Added value of this studyOur study shows that social contact patterns, mixing, and demographic structure all lead to unequal infection risk between ethnic groups in respiratory pathogen epidemics. Using the largest available social contact survey in England, we show that both the average number of contacts and the proportion of high-contact individuals varied by ethnic group, even after adjusting for participants demographics. These differences, together with mixing patterns and age structure, led to lower expected incidence among individuals of White ethnicity than in all other ethnic groups in simulated outbreaks. The level of inequality between ethnic groups changed when we used different values of pathogen transmissibility. Finally, as ethnic composition and population structure differ between cities in England, our results show differences in expected inequalities at a local level. Implications of all the available evidenceInequalities in infection risk between ethnic groups are context- and pathogen-dependent. They arise from both local population structure and contact patterns. Detailed information on mixing between groups and population structure is needed to accurately measure group-specific infection risk. These findings indicate that public health interventions based only on national-level estimates conceal regional variation in risk and may ultimately increase inequalities. Public health interventions need to be tailored to local contexts to be equitable and effective. Finally, our findings provide a foundation for understanding the progression from infection-risk inequalities to disparities in disease presentation and clinical outcomes.

To minimise health disparities, equitable access to medical treatment is paramount. In a pioneering intervention, National Health Service Englands Hepatitis C virus (HCV) programme has implemented country-wide peer support to boost treatment access. Peer support workers (peers) are individuals with relevant lived experience, who promote testing and treatment in marginalised populations underserved by traditional health services. We evaluated the English peers intervention, exploiting its staggered rollout and rich surveillance data between June 2016 and May 2021. Peers increased HCV cases identified by 13{middle dot}9% (95% credible interval (95% CrI) [5{middle dot}3, 21{middle dot}7]), sustained viral responses by 8{middle dot}0% (95% CrI [-4{middle dot}4, 18{middle dot}6]), and drug services referrals by 8{middle dot}8% (95% CrI [-12{middle dot}5, 22{middle dot}6]). The interventions effectiveness was magnified during the first COVID-19 lockdown and individuals supported by peers typically belonged to populations with poor treatment access. Our findings indicate that peers can boost equity in treatment access on a national scale.

BackgroundPolygenic embryo screening (PES) has recently become available to in-vitro fertilization (IVF) patients, allowing them to evaluate the genetic risk of each of their embryos for polygenic conditions such as heart attack or diabetes. Initial modeling predicted that transferring the embryo with the lowest genetic risk for one or more diseases would substantially reduce prevalence in the next generation, with relative risk reductions up to 50%. However, these models assumed the availability of a prespecified number of embryos and that the embryo with the most favorable polygenic risk is born once transferred to the uterus. In reality, a large percentage of embryo transfers do not lead to live births, and IVF frequently results in no or only a single live birth. MethodsTo quantify the expected risk reduction in the context of IVF, we used two datasets: 6944 ovarian stimulation cycles from 4452 Italian infertility patients and 2138 stimulation cycles of egg donors. In both datasets, we simulated the hypothetical application of PES in these cycles by assigning patients and their embryos randomly drawn polygenic risk scores for a given disease, assuming that embryos have been transferred in increasing order of their risk, and tracing their birth outcomes. We then compared the risk of the embryo born after hypothetical PES to the risk of an embryo born without PES. We either considered only completed cycles or integrated over possible birth outcomes of non-transferred embryos in incomplete cycles. ResultsIn stimulation cycles in infertility patients in which all embryos have been transferred and at least one child was born, we estimate that PES will result in relative risk reductions of just {approx}1-3%. In an intention-to-screen analysis of all completed cycles (regardless of birth outcomes), relative risk reductions are under 0.5%. The risk reductions increase, as expected, with more euploid blastocysts and with younger maternal age. Including incomplete cycles (in which not all embryos have been transferred) increases risk reductions to {approx}2-5%, due to the availability of more euploid blastocysts and a higher live birth rate per transfer in these cycles. Pooling all embryos from all cycles of the same patient increases risk reductions to {approx}5-10%. Relative risk reductions in egg donor cycles reach {approx}20% even with a single stimulation cycle per donor. ConclusionsWith the exception of particularly good-prognosis patients or cycles, typical infertility patients would benefit little from PES. In fertile patients, as represented by egg donors, PES is predicted to achieve greater relative risk reductions. However, even though these reductions are still substantially lower than prior estimates that did not account for realistic live birth rates. Ethical, social, and clinical issues associated with offering PES in the general population should be prioritized in future research.

Background Outcome after stroke varies according to stroke subtype by location, but healthcare systems data studies do not include subtyping information. We linked natural language processing (NLP) of brain imaging reports to routinely collected data to estimate risk of death and other outcomes after stroke subtypes in a nationwide dataset. Methods We applied a previously validated NLP algorithm to all CT and MRI head scan reports in Scotland between 2010 and 2018. We linked the reports to hospital readmissions, prescriptions and death data to identify and characterize people with stroke, and to categorize into deep and cortical ischemic stroke, deep and lobar intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), subarachnoid hemorrhage, and subdural hemorrhage. We used a matched cohort design, and age- and sex-matched four controls per case who never had a stroke. By subtype, we estimated rehospitalization with stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), cancer, dementia, epilepsy and death, accounting for confounders and competing risk of death. Results From 785,331 people with a head scan, we identified 64,219 with clinical stroke phenotypes (mean age 73.4yrs, 49.5% male), and subtyped 12,616 with deep ischaemic stroke; 14,103 with cortical ischaemic stroke; 1,814 with deep ICH; and 1,456 with lobar ICH. There was higher absolute rate of 1-year hospital readmission for lobar compared with deep ICH (4.9% [95%CI 3.9% - 6.1%] vs 3.4% [2.6% - 4.3%]), higher risk of dementia beyond 6 months after lobar ICH compared to controls than for other stroke subtypes (aHR 3.5 [2.3-5.3]); and higher risk of MI within 6 months of cortical ischemic stroke than for other stroke subtypes (aHR 4.6 [3.4-6.3]). Conclusions NLP of free-text reports linked to coded data successfully subtyped stroke at scale, and we estimated risk of clinically relevant outcomes. Future work should use free text to enable large-scale audit and epidemiology of people with stroke.

Background Inflammatory markers play an important role in the pathophysiology of Lumbar disc herniation (LDH). This study presents a comprehensive multi-assessment of the inflammatory landscape by combining serum inflammatory cytokines quantification, their diagnostic performance, associations with radiological features, and integrating the experimental findings into an in-silico protein-protein interaction network. Methods A multifaceted study design was utilized to quantify and compare the distribution of selected inflammatory cytokines in patients with LDH and control subjects. The diagnostic ability of these cytokines was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The cytokines values were correlated with selected radiological findings including disc herniation subtypes (protrusion, extrusion, and sequestration), and further categorized as contained and non-contained in patients using a Spearmans rank correlation test. Additionally, computational analysis was performed to identify the central hubs and functionally enriched pathways. Results In patients with LDH, IL-6 and IL-1{beta} showed statistically significant (IL-6: p < 0.001; IL-1{beta}: p = 0.001) rise, but IL-6 showed high diagnostic and discriminative power (AUC = 0.99; cut-off: 19.99 pg/mL). Further IL-1{beta} exhibited a positive correlation with non-contained disc herniation (extrusion and sequestration), while displaying a significant (p < 0.05) negative correlation with protrusion. In silico analysis identified IL-1{beta}, IL-8, TNF-, IL-6, IL-1, CSF2, CSF3, and IL-10 as central hubs, with IL-1{beta} being the top ranked hub in determining functionally enriched cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction. Conclusions Study confirmed IL-6 as a powerful diagnostic marker for LDH, while IL-1{beta} aids in determining contained and non-contained disc herniation. Further, IL-1{beta} was identified as the central hub, triggering functionally enriched pathways in the pathogenesis of LDH.

Background: Since September 2024, France has implemented a national reform allowing prescription-free access (PFA) to sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening in medical biological laboratories (MBLs). This study aims to characterize the populations undergoing STI testing according to their access modality and evaluate the probability of test positivity in relation to testing pathway, sex, and age groups. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of all individuals screened for Chlamydia trachomatis, Gonorrhoea, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and syphilis by treponemal-specific immunoassay (TSI) in Cerballiance MBLs between Mars 2025 and February 2026. Multivariable logistic regression models stratified by sex and adjusted for age and region assessed associations between screening modality and STI positivity. Results: Among 1,008,737 individuals included, 27.8% were under PFA and 72.2 under prescription-based access (PBA). PFA users were more frequently male (47.4% vs. 36.3%, p<0.001) and aged 20-39 years (34.0%, p<0.001). Overall positivity rates differed by modality: PFA was associated with higher detection of Chlamydia (4.6% vs. 3.6%). PBA group showed more positive cases of syphilis (3.4% vs. 1.2%), HBV (1.3% vs. 0.4%), and HIV infections (0.3% vs. 0.2%, all p<0.001). Co-infection and gonorrhoea proportions did not significantly differ between modalities. Conclusions: PFA substantially increased STI screening uptake, particularly among young adults and men, and enhanced detection of bacterial STIs. PBA remains essential for diagnosing viral and chronic infections. These findings highlight the complementary roles of both access strategies and support PFA screening as an effective public health intervention to broaden STI detection and reduce transmission.

Excess body weight has been associated with increased cancer risk, but the role of weight change across adulthood remains unclear. We examined body weight trajectories from ages 17 to 60 and their associations with site-specific cancer incidence. Data were based on the ODDS study, a pooled, nationwide cohort study in Sweden, with data on weight spanning 1911 to 2020, and cancer follow-up through 2023. Weight trajectories were estimated with linear mixed effects models in individuals with at least three weight measurements. Cox regressions estimated hazard ratios for associations between weight trajectories and established and potentially obesity-related cancers. Fifth versus first quintile of weight change was associated with many cancers, most strongly with esophageal adenocarcinoma in men (HR 2.25; 95% CI 1.66-3.04), liver cancer in men (HR 2.67; 95% CI 2.15-3.33), endometrial cancer in women (HR 3.78; 95% CI 3.09-4.61), and pituitary tumors in both sexes (men: HR 3.13 [95% CI 2.13-4.61]; women: HR 2.13 [95% CI 1.41-3.22]). Associations varied by sex and age. Heavier weight at age 17 years and earlier obesity onset were also associated with higher cancer incidence. These findings highlight the importance of a life-course approach to weight management and support sex- and age-targeted cancer prevention strategies.

Introduction: Modeling when influenza epidemics typically occur can help countries optimize surveillance, time clinical and public health interventions, and reduce the burden of influenza. Methods: We used influenza virus detections reported during 2011-2024 by 180 countries to the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System, excluding COVID-19 pandemic impacted years (2020-2023). We analyzed data by calendar year (week 1-52) or shifted year (week 30-29) time windows, based on when most influenza detections occurred in each country. For countries with sufficient data, we computed generalized additive models (GAMs) of each country's weekly influenza-positive tests to smooth and impute time series distributions. From these GAMs, we calculated each country's normalized weekly influenza burden. Country-specific normalized time series were grouped using hierarchical k-means clustering reducing the Euclidean distance between time series within clusters. We calculated cluster-specific GAMs to estimate average seasonal timing. Countries without sufficient data were assigned to a cluster based on population-weighted latitudinal distance to a cluster's mean latitude. Results: We identified five clusters, or epidemic zones, from 111 countries with sufficient data. The influenza burden in epidemic zones A and B was consistent with a northern hemisphere pattern, with most influenza detections occurring during October-April (A) and September-March (B), while epidemic zones D and E were characterized by southern hemisphere-like seasonal timing, with most influenza burden occurring during May-November. Epidemic zone C had most influenza burden occurring during September-March; most countries assigned to this cluster were in the tropics. Conclusion: Epidemic zones may serve as a useful tool to strengthen and optimize influenza surveillance for global health decision-making (e.g., during vaccine strain composition discussions) and to guide country preparedness efforts for seasonal influenza epidemics, including the timing of enhanced surveillance, as well as the procurement and delivery of vaccines and antivirals.

Target trial emulation (TTE) offers a principled way to estimate treatment effects using real-world observational data, but analyses of time-varying treatment strategies remain vulnerable to immortal time bias. The clone-censor-weight (CCW) approach is increasingly used to address this problem, yet key aspects of its causal interpretation and implementation remain unclear. In this work, we emulate a target trial using electronic health records (EHRs) to compare completion of a 3-dose 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccination (HPV) series within 12 months versus remaining partially vaccinated among vaccine initiators. We link CCW to the classic potential outcome framework in causal inference, evaluate the role of different weighting mechanisms, and account for within-subject correlation induced by cloning using cluster-robust variance estimation. Our study provides practical guidance for applying CCW in real-world comparative effectiveness studies to address immortal time bias and supports more rigorous and interpretable treatment effect estimation in TTE.

ObjectiveStudies of nutritional status and host responses during severe and critical illness have focused predominantly on obesity; in contrast, the relationship between undernutrition, host responses, and clinical outcomes in adults hospitalized with severe infection remains poorly defined. We sought to determine whether severe undernutrition is associated with distinct host responses and clinical outcomes in adults hospitalized with severe infection. DesignProspective cohort study. SettingTwo public referral hospitals in Uganda. PatientsNon-pregnant adults ([&ge;]18 yr) hospitalized with severe, undifferentiated infection. InterventionsNone. Measurements and Main ResultsWe analyzed clinical data and serum Olink proteomic data from 432 participants (median age, 45 yr [IQR, 31-57 yr]; 44% male). Overall, 213 participants (49%) met prespecified criteria for undernutrition, including 52 (12%) with severe undernutrition. Clinically, severe undernutrition was associated with HIV coinfection, microbiologically diagnosed tuberculosis, greater physiological instability, and higher mortality. After adjustment for age, sex, illness duration, study site, and HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis coinfection, severe undernutrition was associated with higher expression of proteins involved in pro-inflammatory immune signaling, endothelial and vascular remodeling, hypoxia and oxidative stress responses, and extracellular matrix remodeling, together with lower expression of proteins linked to growth signaling, anticoagulant regulation, and lipid homeostasis. ConclusionsSevere undernutrition is associated with a distinct high-risk clinical phenotype and biologic signature in adults hospitalized with severe infection. These findings suggest that undernutrition may potentiate key domains of sepsis pathobiology, with implications for strengthening nutritional support and informing host-directed treatment strategies in low- and middle-income countries where malnutrition is common. Key PointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSHow does undernutrition influence immune, metabolic, and endothelial responses to severe infection in adults? FindingsIn this multicenter cohort study of 432 adults hospitalized with severe infection in Uganda, severe undernutrition was associated with greater physiologic instability, higher mortality, and a distinct proteomic host-response profile. Adults with severe undernutrition exhibited a proteomic signature characterized by pro-inflammatory immune signaling, endothelial and extracellular matrix remodeling, and hypoxia and oxidative stress responses, together with lower expression of proteins involved in growth signaling, anticoagulant regulation, and lipid homeostasis. MeaningSevere undernutrition is associated with a distinct high-risk clinical and biologic phenotype during severe infection, with implications for nutritional support, risk stratification, and host-directed therapeutic strategies, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

BackgroundX chromosome inactivation (XCI) is the mechanism which randomly silences one X chromosome to equalise gene expression between 46, XX females and 46, XY males. Though XCI is expected to result in a random pattern of mosaicism across tissues, some females display a significantly unbalanced ratio in immune cells, termed XCI-skew, in which [&ge;]75% of cells have the same X inactivated. XCI-skew is associated with adverse health outcomes and its prevalence increases with age - particularly after midlife - yet the specific risk factors have yet to be identified. The menopausal transition, which is driven by profound shifts in sex hormone levels, has significant impact on chronic disease risk yet the molecular and cellular effects are incompletely understood. We hypothesised that the menopausal transition may impact XCI-skew. MethodsUsing XCI data measured in blood-derived DNA from 1,395 females from the TwinsUK population cohort, along with questionnaires, genetic data, and sex hormone measures, we carried out a cross-sectional study to assess the impact of the menopausal transition and sex hormones on XCI-skew. ResultsWe demonstrate that early menopause (<45yrs) is associated with increased risk of XCI-skew. In subset analyses across those who had a surgically induced or natural menopause, we find the association restricted to those who underwent a surgical menopause. We next identify a low polygenic score (PGS) for testosterone levels is significantly associated with XCI-skew, which we replicate in an independent dataset (n=149), while a PGS for age at natural menopause is not associated. Finally, using longitudinal measures across two time points spanning [~]18 years we show XCI-skew is a stable cellular phenotype that typically increases over time. DiscussionThese data represent the first environmental and genetic risk factors of XCI-skew, both of which implicate endogenous sex hormone levels, particularly testosterone. We propose XCI-skew may have clinical relevance in postmenopausal females.

Introduction: Accurate stratification of hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk remains challenging despite advances in prevention. Liver function biomarkers (LFBs), particularly gamma - glutamyl transferase (GGT), have been linked to cardiovascular outcomes, yet their contribution to hard ASCVD risk prediction is not well defined. Methods: This study analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 2005 - 2018) to assess cross - sectional associations between LFBs and 10 - year hard ASCVD risk estimated by the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations. Multivariable regression, restricted cubic splines, and mediation analyses were applied to examine independent and dose - response relationships. External validation was performed in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and NHANES using machine learning models (CoxBoost, Naive Bayes and Random Forest). Results: Among 5,731 NHANES participants, GGT showed an independent linear association with hard ASCVD risk (P - trend = 0.003), partly mediated by systolic blood pressure (44.8%), HbA1c (19.0%), and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (13.4%). Machine learning (ML) models incorporating GGT, alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and globulin alongside traditional risk factors improved predictive accuracy, with Naive Bayes achieving an AUC of 0.751 in NHANES validation. Conclusions: GGT is an independent and biologically plausible biomarker of hard ASCVD risk, acting through cardiometabolic pathways. Incorporating LFBs into risk prediction models, particularly with machine learning, enhances risk stratification and may facilitate early identification of high - risk individuals.

ImportanceBlood-based biomarkers hold promise for psychiatric diagnosis and prognosis, yet clinical translation is constrained by poor reproducibility. Psychiatric biomarker studies are typically small, and demographic, behavioral, and temporal covariates often go undetected or cannot be adequately modeled. This may lead to residual confounding and unstable associations. ObservationsLeveraging UK Biobank data (N=~500,000), we systematically quantified how technical, demographic, behavioral, and temporal covariates influence 29 blood biomarkers commonly measured in research studies in psychiatry. Variance analyses showed substantial differences across biomarkers. Technical factors explained 1-6% and demographic factors explained 5-15% of the variance, with pronounced age-by-sex interactions for lipids and sex hormones. Behavioral covariates, particularly body mass index (BMI) and smoking, strongly influenced inflammatory markers. Temporal factors introduced systematic confounding. Chronotype was associated with blood collection time, multiple biomarkers exhibited marked diurnal rhythms (including testosterone, triglycerides, and immune markers), and inflammatory markers showed seasonal peaks in winter. In association analysis of biomarkers with major depression, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, covariate adjustments attenuated or eliminated a substantial proportion of the biomarker-disorder associations, with BMI emerging as the dominant confounder. These findings demonstrate that such confounding structures exist and can be characterized in large cohorts, though specific biomarker-disorder relationships require validation in clinical samples. Conclusions and RelevancePoor reproducibility of biomarkers may not only stem from insufficient biological signal but also from inconsistent handling of confounders. We propose a systematic framework distinguishing technical factors (to be removed), demographic factors (addressed through adjustment or stratification), temporal factors (ideally controlled at design stages), and behavioral factors (requiring explicit causal reasoning). Associations robust to multiple adjustment strategies should be prioritized for clinical biomarker development. Standardized collection protocols, comprehensive covariate measurement, and transparent reporting across models are essential to improve reproducibility and identify biomarkers that reflect genuine illness-related pathophysiology.

Background. Vietnam's disease burden has shifted from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), but the tempo, drivers, and regional positioning of this transition have not been jointly quantified. We characterised Vietnam's epidemiological transition 1990-2023 against ten Southeast-Asian (SEA) peers. Methods. Using Global Burden of Disease 2023 data, we computed joinpoint-regression AAPC with 95% CI (BIC-penalised, up to three break-points) for age-standardised DALY rates and cause-composition shares. We applied Das Gupta three-factor decomposition to 1990-2023 absolute DALY change (population-size, age-structure, age-specific-rate effects) and benchmarked Vietnam's NCD share against an SDI-conditional peer trajectory via leave-one-out quadratic regression. Premature mortality was quantified as WHO 30q70 under both broad NCD and strict SDG 3.4.1 definitions, using Chiang II life-table adjustment identically across all eleven countries. Findings. The CMNN age-standardised DALY rate fell from 13,295.9 to 4,022.1 per 100,000 (AAPC -4.63%/year; 95% CI -4.80 to -4.46); the NCD rate fell only from 21,688.2 to 19,282.8 (AAPC -0.37; -0.45 to -0.30). NCD share of total DALYs rose from 52.99% to 70.67% (+17.67 pp; AAPC +1.09). Vietnam ranked fourth of eleven SEA countries in 2023 (up from sixth in 1990) and sat 5.3% above the SDI-expected trajectory. Das Gupta decomposition attributed the +10.63 million NCD DALY increase to population growth (+6.26 M) and ageing (+6.08 M); rate change removed only 1.71 M. Premature NCD mortality fell from 25.02% to 21.80% (broad, 12.9% reduction) and from 22.17% to 19.50% (SDG 3.4.1, 12.0%; Vietnam sixth of eleven) - far short of the SDG 3.4 one-third-reduction target. Interpretation. Vietnam has entered a disability- and ageing-dominated NCD phase. Meeting SDG 3.4 by 2030 requires population-scale primary prevention sized to demographic momentum.

BackgroundLynch syndrome (LS) is a cancer susceptibility syndrome caused by germline pathogenic variants in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes. Due to increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), enhanced colonoscopic surveillance is recommended for heterozygote MMR-carriers. ObjectiveUsing a registry of English LS patients linked to digital National Health Service records, we aimed to assess adherence of MMR-carriers to national surveillance guidelines, and to determine the impact of surveillance on CRC incidence and mortality. DesignWe described the frequency of colonoscopies in 4,732 MMR-carriers and used logistic regression to determine predictors of surveillance adherence. For MMR-carriers with a record of surveillance and those without, we: estimated age-specific annual CRC incidence rates (AS-AIRs) and cumulative lifetime risks, assessed for stage-shift by comparing CRC stage distributions and stage-specific AS-AIRs, and estimated risks of death from CRC and any cause using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox Proportional Hazards regression. ResultsSurveillance at a mean interval of [&le;] 3 years (n=3028) was associated with a decrease in CRC-specific and all-cause mortality, without an associated change in total CRC incidence, even after multivariate adjustment. No strong evidence of stage-shift was observed. Colonoscopic surveillance at a mean interval of [&le;] 2 years (n=1569) was associated with an increase in total CRC incidence. Incidence of early-stage cancers was also higher, with no corresponding decrease in late-stage cancers, which may reflect the short follow-up period or the impact of overdiagnosis. ConclusionThe observed reduction in all-cause mortality amongst regularly-surveilled MMR-carriers may indicate an impact of surveillance on CRC-specific mortality, though in the context of a non-randomised study likely reflects the influence of selection bias. KEY MESSAGES OF ARTICLEO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSRegular surveillance colonoscopy is recommended in Lynch syndrome, though evidence to support this remains mixed. We searched PubMed for articles published from inception to 01/05/2024 using the terms "Lynch syndrome", "HNPCC", "colonoscopy", "sigmoidoscopy", "surveillance", and "screening". We found one controlled trial and several small analytical studies dating from the early 2000s which compared surveilled and non-surveilled populations and found surveillance to be associated with reduced colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and improved survival. More recent longitudinal observational studies, most without comparator groups, found a high incidence of CRC in LS populations despite being resident in countries where surveillance was recommended. A small number of studies directly assessed time since last colonoscopy against CRC incidence and stage with mixed findings. Finally, cross-sectional comparisons between countries of CRC incidence rates and surveillance interval recommendations found no relationship between the two1,2. What this study addsHere, we conduct an observational cohort study on a large national cohort of MMR germline pathogenic variant (GPV) carriers (MMR-carriers) in England (n=4,732), comparing CRC incidence and mortality in individuals with a record of regular surveillance to those without. Through linkage of the English National Lynch Syndrome Registry to Hospital Episodes Statistics data, we are uniquely able to study a comprehensive national population of MMR-carriers and identify the dates on which colonoscopies were undertaken over time, allowing assessment of adherence to national surveillance guidelines and the impact this has on CRC outcomes. Notably, receipt of regular colonoscopy was strongly associated with deprivation as well as ethnicity. The results show that regular surveillance at an average interval of 3 years (or less) is not associated with a reduction in CRC incidence when compared to less frequent surveillance, but an apparent decrease in both CRC-specific and overall mortality is observed, even after adjustment for confounding variables. Conversely, regular surveillance at an average interval of 2 years (or less) is associated with an increase in CRC incidence when compared to less frequent surveillance, which may suggest increased diagnosis of early-stage cancers or, due to the absence of a reduction in late-stage cancers, overdiagnosis. The observed impact of surveillance on overall mortality may demonstrate the impact of surveillance on CRC-specific mortality, or, in the context of an observational (non-randomised) study, indicate that the results are subject to selection bias. How this study might affect research, practice, or policyEvidence for the benefit of surveillance colonoscopy remains mixed. Whilst polypectomy would be anticipated to prevent CRC development (thus reducing CRC incidence), several studies have observed increased frequency of CRCs in MMR-carriers undergoing frequent surveillance colonoscopy, which may reflect overdiagnosis. The selection bias inherent to observational studies of surveillance renders mortality outcomes challenging to interpret. Randomised controlled trials of colonoscopic surveillance in MMR-carriers are required for effectiveness of this intervention to be accurately assessed. Given ethical and feasibility challenges, randomised controlled trials might be complemented by quasi-experimental designs using advanced observational methods for assessing effectiveness.

IntroductionPreterm pre-eclampsia is associated with increased risk of later cardiovascular disease. This study examines cardiometabolic health 3-6 years post-preterm pre-eclampsia and explores whether early postnatal cardiovascular phenotypes relate to later cardiovascular morbidity. MethodsPICk-UP trial participants who experienced preterm pre-eclampsia underwent assessments including anthropometry, blood pressure (BP), arteriography, echocardiography, biomarkers and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging 3-6 years postpartum. The primary outcome was hypertension prevalence, with secondary outcomes including cardiac fibrosis, remodelling, and function, obesity, and lipid abnormalities. Associations between baseline, pregnancy and postnatal characteristics with the primary and secondary outcomes were explored. ResultsForty-five women were included; 37 underwent echocardiography and 20 had CMR. At 3-6 years, 53% had hypertension, 32% developed de novo hypertension, 30% had adverse left ventricular (LV) remodelling, 49% had diastolic dysfunction, and 27% were obese. Myocardial fibrosis was detected in 35% of CMR participants. No cardiovascular measures changed from 6 months postpartum to 3-6 years. Women who developed hypertension demonstrated higher BP and LV mass index, from 6 weeks postpartum, with distinct postnatal BP trajectories. Women with myocardial fibrosis exhibited higher sFlt and CRP concentrations from 6 weeks postpartum, with sFlt correlating with native T1 at 3-6 years. DiscussionWomen with prior preterm pre-eclampsia show significant cardiometabolic morbidity 3-6 years postpartum. Early postnatal phenotypes indicate long-term cardiovascular risk. Persistent anti-angiogenic imbalance and inflammation may contribute to myocardial fibrosis. Early BP, weight, and biomarker measurement may help identify at-risk women, warranting further studies on optimising postnatal care to mitigate cardiovascular risk after preterm pre-eclampsia.

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has long been considered a risk factor for cerebral small vessel disease (cSVD), yet the exact relationship between glycemic markers and cSVD remains unclear. This study explores the genetic overlap and causal associations between T2DM, glycemic indices, and cSVD phenotypes using genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Methods: Using large consortium-based GWAS data, we examined relationships between T2DM, glycemic indicators (glycated hemoglobin, fasting glucose, 2-hour glucose after oral challenge, and fasting insulin), and cSVD phenotypes (white matter hyperintensity volume, lacunar stroke, cerebral microbleeds, and enlarged perivascular spaces). Our multi-level genomic strategy included: 1) identifying pleiotropic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) through PLEIO and eQTL analysis, 2) assessing genome-wide genetic correlations using LDSC and GNOVA, and 3) determining causal relationships with two-sample and multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses. Results: We identified 14 pleiotropic SNPs with significant shared associations among T2DM, glycemic indicators, and cSVD phenotypes. Notably, MICB gene expression was elevated in brain, vascular, and pancreatic tissues, while three HLA genes (HLA-DQA1, HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DRB5) showed reduced expression. Genetic correlation analysis revealed positive correlations between T2DM, fasting glucose, and postprandial glucose with multiple cSVD phenotypes including WMH, lacunar stroke, and perivascular spaces. Mendelian randomization demonstrated that T2DM, 2-hour glucose, and HbA1c level causally increased lacunar stroke risk (OR 1.16 [1.09-1.23], OR 1.46 [1.20-1.77], OR 1.52 [1.04-2.23], respectively). Multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis confirmed that T2DM and postprandial glucose maintained a robust direct effect on lacunar stroke independent of other cSVD phenotypes, while HbA1c did not retain significance after conditioning on cSVD imaging markers. Conclusions: Our multi-level genomic analysis reveals links between T2DM, glycemic traits, and cSVD through specific genetic variants, genome-wide correlations, and causal relationships. The involvement of immune-related genes suggests potential biological mechanisms. The causal effect of postprandial glucose on lacunar stroke suggests that impaired glucose tolerance may be a relevant therapeutic target for lacunar stroke prevention.

ImportanceEmerging data show that B-cell depleting chemotherapies, which are increasingly used to treat autoimmune disorders and multiple sclerosis, can be associated with mucosal side effects such as inflammatory vaginitis. ObjectiveEvaluate the impact of rituximab treatment on vaginal mucosal immune markers, endocervical immune cell populations and vaginal microbiome. DesignCross-sectional observational study conducted between 2022 - 2024. SettingAcademic medical center, Boston Massachusetts. ParticipantsWe enrolled women aged >18 years who were either 1) receiving rituximab for autoimmune renal disease or were 2) healthy controls ExposureTreatment with rituximab, an anti CD20 monoclonal antibody. Main outcome and measureWe compared endocervical immune cell populations, vaginal fluid immune markers, vaginal fluid immunoglobulins and vaginal microbiome composition between individuals being treated with rituximab and healthy controls. ResultsWe enrolled 26 women treated with rituximab for autoimmune renal disease and 26 healthy controls. Median circulating and endocervical B-cell and plasma cell proportions were significantly lower in treated participants compared to controls. Median vaginal fluid IgA concentrations were significantly lower in participants treated with rituximab, while ILE, IgM, IgG1, IgG2, IgG3 and IgG4 were not different between groups. Total T cell frequencies were similar between groups, but the proportion of activated T cells (CD4+CD38+HLADR+) was significantly lower in people treated with rituximab. Concentrations of IL10, IL13, IL17, IL21, IL23, IL4, ITAC and TNFa were elevated in vaginal fluid from the rituximab group, while IL-8 was lower. A CST-IV-C, low-Lactobacillus pattern of vaginal microbiota was more common in the rituximab group. Conclusions and RelevanceSystemic B-cell depletion is associated with reduced vaginal fluid IgA, a more diverse microbiome composition, and increases in many vaginal fluid immune markers compared to healthy controls. The reduction in vaginal fluid IgA may provide opportunities for vaginal bacteria to induce inflammation. Key pointsO_ST_ABSQuestionC_ST_ABSHow does circulating B-cell depletion impact the vaginal microenvironment? FindingsIn this cross-sectional study of 52 women, B cell and plasma cell proportions were significantly lower in both blood and vaginal mucosa among rituximab-treated participants compared to healthy controls. Vaginal IgA concentrations, but not other immunoglobulins, were significantly lower in rituximab treated participants. In treated participants, vaginal cytokine concentrations were elevated, and microbiome composition shifted toward non-Lactobacillus-dominant communities. In six people with inflammatory vaginitis, both circulating and endocervical B cells were lowest in people with the most severe symptoms. MeaningSystemic B cell depletion is associated with alterations in vaginal mucosal immune markers and microbiome composition which increase local inflammation.